WMT -9.2% on Q2 earnings despite profit gain and raised outlook

Thursday belonged to Walmart — and not in the way the earnings headline suggested. $WMT fell 9.2%, its worst single-session decline in four years, on the same day it reported Q2 results: revenue up 5.9%, profit up 28.8%, full-year outlook raised. The market's response was a sell-off. What within the report drove it — guidance range versus consensus, gross margin detail — is not resolved by our data feed, but the tape is unambiguous.

Rates provided no relief

The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.65% Thursday, with one session recap describing long-end yields snapping back toward 20-month highs. The 30-year mortgage rate is at 6.65%. VIX sat at 14.9 — contained, but off its recent lows. Rising long-end yields compress multiples and tighten the cost-of-capital math for consumer-facing names. Walmart carries both exposures.

COIN ran the other direction

$COIN gained 7.6%. The CLARITY Act vote is on the horizon, President Trump declared Thursday that the U.S. is "winning" the crypto race, and Coinbase's CEO cited both publicly. The digital asset complex caught a clear policy tailwind while the broader session ran cold.

Defense and aerospace under pressure

$RTX fell 3.7%, $GE fell 3.3%, and $BA fell 3.2% in a session with no single clean catalyst for any of the three. The State Department approved a $4.5 billion Qatar sale for KC-46A aerial refueling aircraft Thursday — a Boeing product — but BA fell anyway. Rate-driven multiple compression and sector risk-off positioning appear to be the common thread.

The rest of the tape

$SPCX dropped 4.0% as its second post-IPO lockup expired, freeing 319 million shares for trading — supply mechanics, no operational news. $MS fell 3.2%; no filing or headline in our window explains the move. $COP rose 3.3%; the ticker cleared the move threshold but no filing or clean catalyst in our window attributes the gain. $FCX rose 3.1%, consistent with Trump's $500 million critical minerals push keeping copper names bid.

$ABT settled its preterm infant formula litigation Thursday for $670 million, covering the $495 million Gill judgment plus claims from approximately 2,000 additional families.

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Filings desk

A $PLTR director sold $2.8 million in shares Thursday. At $TMO, Chief HR Officer Lisa Britt exercised 11,440 vested options at $418.32 and sold all shares immediately at $613.12 — approximately $7.0 million in proceeds. Standard same-day exercise.

What we set aside: 2 proxy and governance filings (board mechanics, not market catalysts); 8 filings involving events older than 36 hours; 9 tickers with no substantive news in the window.

The desk is watching tomorrow's analyst reaction to Walmart's Q2 guidance detail and the 10-year yield's trajectory from Thursday's close at 4.65%.