GOOGL down 12.6% on Q3 profit drop; CAT down 9.2%, LLY up 6.6%

The 10-year Treasury yield sat at 5.05% on Wednesday; the 30-year mortgage rate printed 7.24% Thursday; VIX closed at 16.9. That rate environment is the context for everything below.

$GOOGL — down 12.6%

Alphabet's Q3 revenue grew 25%, but quarterly profit fell 24% from investment losses tied to AI infrastructure spending. Reports describe it as the stock's worst single-session decline on record. $GOOG moved in tandem. Revenue is not the dispute; the market is repricing when that capital spending converts to earnings.

$CAT — down 9.2%

Caterpillar reported Q3 revenue up 17%, earnings up 46%, and a record $78 billion backlog — and the stock fell anyway. Supply shortages are forcing new production capacity investment at the same moment the 10-year at 5.05% raises infrastructure financing costs for Caterpillar's heaviest customers. Backlogs accumulate when the rate environment defers drawdown.

$LLY — up 6.6%

Q3 revenue grew 39% on Mounjaro and Zepbound demand. Eli Lilly raised 2026 earnings guidance and filed its Form 10-Q the same session. The guidance raise is the operative number — the GLP-1 demand curve is not decelerating.

Other movers

$AMZN fell 4.2%: AWS revenue grew 39%, but free cash flow fell sharply on accelerating AI capital expenditure and the company missed profit targets — the same narrative as $GOOGL, one session later. $MA rose 4.2% to a 52-week high on Q3 profit up 18% from digital payment volume. $MSFT reported Q3 profit up 32% on $92.3 billion in revenue. $MRK rose 3.8% after FDA fast-track designation for a new endometrial cancer drug and Q3 revenue growth of 5%. $GE rose 4.0% after GE Aerospace raised 2026 targets despite Q3 cost growth of 17.2%. $INTC fell 3.6%: data center revenue up 78%, but Q4 guidance calls for a $300 million revenue decline as the PC market contracts and a factory shuts down. $CRM fell 4.6%; no dateable catalyst is evident from available context. $HD rose 3.6%; the driver is not apparent from available sources.

On deck: $ABBV and $CVX

AbbVie reports Friday with 9.9% revenue growth expected and the stock trading at roughly 19x forward earnings after a mixed pipeline week. Chevron also reports Friday; $11.4 billion in projected free cash flow — twice its dividend-and-buyback requirement — makes capital allocation the central question.

Updates

$META's share offering through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley remains open; the company's COO filed a $1.0 million share sale Thursday, following the $1.1 million transaction eight days ago. Q3 numbers for $KO (revenue $13.4 billion, earnings up 8%), $WELL (nine-month net income up 93% to $1.6 billion), and $PLD (earnings up 48%, revenue up 9%) are updates to prior-issue coverage.

What we set aside

One proxy filing was dropped — board mechanics do not constitute a market catalyst. Twenty-one disclosures were held because the underlying events were more than 36 hours old at filing time.

Filings desk

$COIN filed its Form 10-Q Thursday covering quarterly earnings and forward commentary on crypto trading, stablecoin services, and derivatives markets. $BRK-B disclosed a $69 million sale of DaVita shares.

The desk watches $ABBV and $CVX earnings Friday, and whether Alphabet's margin compression reshapes the market's tolerance for AI capital expenditure across the rest of this earnings season.