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The Daily Brief · Thursday · June 25, 2026

Inflation at 4.1% splits the tape: AMAT up 13.4%, AAPL down 6.1%

A three-year inflation high raised Fed rate-hike odds on Thursday, lifting chip equipment names while Apple led broad tech lower.
Inflation at 4.1% splits the tape: AMAT up 13.4%, AAPL down 6.1% — editorial illustration

Inflation printed at 4.1% on Thursday, a three-year high, and the tape split immediately: semiconductor equipment names posted double-digit gains while broad technology retreated, $AAPL leading losses at -6.1% and the Nasdaq extending its losing streak to a third consecutive session. The 10-year Treasury held at 4.41%. VIX settled at 18.6.

Chip equipment: Micron's read-through moves the sector

$AMAT led the S&P 500, up 13.4%. Applied Materials does not report this week, but Micron Technology's blowout earnings — which drove Micron shares up roughly 16% — repriced semiconductor equipment demand in real time. When Micron's guidance implies a sustained wafer-fabrication cycle, Applied Materials is the direct beneficiary. $QCOM added 3.8% on two distinct drivers: the company announced it will acquire Modular Inc for 19.2 million shares, and analysts continued to build the case for Qualcomm's $15 billion AI data center revenue target by 2029 as a credible alternative to Nvidia in that market. In a session where most of technology was selling, Qualcomm held.

Big-cap technology: the inflation repricing

$AAPL fell 6.1% after reports that the company plans to raise product prices. In a 4.1% inflation environment, a consumer price increase reads as a demand-risk event, not a margin story. $MSFT fell 3.5% after Stifel released a note arguing that heavy AI infrastructure investment will compress profit margins faster than Azure growth can offset — a direct challenge to Street consensus. $PLTR dropped 5.5%; Needham offered a constructive take on Palantir's Zeta Global partnership today, but macro pressure on rate-sensitive growth names overrode the analyst endorsement. $ORCL fell 3.2% and $AMZN fell 3.1%, consistent with a broad repricing of long-duration technology as rate-hike expectations firmed. $DIS shed 3.0% with no single-company catalyst.

Crypto: Bitcoin below $60,000

$COIN fell 5.1% as Bitcoin slipped below $60,000. Bank of America reiterated a bullish long-term view on Coinbase this week, but short-cycle crypto price moves dominate the stock. Exchange revenue tracks network activity and asset prices — both declined on the session.

Filings desk

$NVDA Director Mark Stevens disclosed a sale of $186 million in shares — one of the larger insider dispositions in the semiconductor space this year, filed on the same day the chip sector posted its best session in recent memory. No other filings cleared the freshness gate today.

What we set aside

One filing was held because the underlying event is more than 36 hours old. One article was dropped after reading — no substance behind the headline. $BRK-B was examined and found quiet.

Tomorrow the desk is watching whether Thursday's 4.1% inflation print translates into a formal shift in Fed rate-hike probabilities ahead of next month's policy meeting.

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